Bayesian Mixer on Meetup

We had our first successful Bayesian Mixer Meetup last Friday night at the Artillery Arms! We expected about 15 - 20 people to turn up, whe...

Hierarchical Loss Reserving with Stan

I continue with the growth curve model for loss reserving from last week's post . Today, following the ideas of James Guszcza [2] I wil...

Loss Developments via Growth Curves and Stan

Last week I posted a biological example of fitting a non-linear growth curve with Stan / RStan . Today, I want to apply a similar approach ...

Non-linear growth curves with Stan

I suppose the go to tool for fitting non-linear models in R is nls of the stats package. In this post I will show an alternative approach ...

Bayesian regression models using Stan in R

It seems the summer is coming to end in London, so I shall take a final look at my ice cream data that I have been playing around with to pr...

Visualising the predictive distribution of a log-transformed linear model

Last week I presented visualisations of theoretical distributions that predict ice cream sales statistics based on linear and generalised l...

Posterior predictive output with Stan

I continue my Stan experiments with another insurance example. Here I am particular interested in the posterior predictive distribution fro...

Hello Stan!

In my previous post I discussed how Longley-Cook, an actuary at an insurance company in the 1950's, used Bayesian reasoning to estimate...